From the Reader’s Desk

Is Your State School Still a Safety School?

What Changed at Public Universities — and How to Rebuild Your List

It’s the question we get more than any other, and the honest answer has changed. Here are the real numbers — and how to build a college list your family can actually count on!

It’s late July, which means families all across the country are quietly starting to build next year’s college list. So let us tell you why we’re writing about this now, and not in October.

Every spring, we have a conversation that is one of the hardest ones in this business.

A family sits down with us and a wonderful student. Strong grades. Real activities. A thoughtful essay. They applied to a few reaches, a couple of targets — and the state school, which everyone in the family quietly treated as the sure thing. The one that was “obviously” going to say yes. And then in March, the state school says no. Or it says yes to the university, but no to the major their student actually wanted.

Nobody in that room did anything wrong! They were simply working from a rule that used to be true and quietly stopped being true. And by March, it is far too late to fix — which is exactly why we’re bringing it to you in July.

So what actually changed at public universities — and what should your family do about it? We are glad you asked! Between us, we’ve spent more than thirty-six combined years reading scholarship files as current members of the UCLA Scholarship Admissions Committee. Let’s break it down, with no fluff and real numbers.

Reason #1: The Applicant Pool Exploded

Start with the simplest math in admissions. When the number of applicants grows and the size of the freshman class doesn’t, the acceptance rate falls — not because your student got weaker, but because the denominator got bigger.

And the pool has grown remarkably. According to the Common App’s own reporting, students had submitted roughly 9.4 million applications by March of the most recent cycle — an increase of about 2.1 million in just four years. Part of that is more students applying, and part of it is each student applying to more schools: the average number of applications per applicant has climbed steadily, now sitting around 6.6 per student.

Here’s what that means at your kitchen table: your student isn’t just competing with more people. They’re competing with the same people more times, at more schools, including the one you assumed was comfortable.

Reason #2: Out-of-State Students Now Fill Far More Seats

For a generation, a state flagship was funded by your state’s taxpayers and filled largely by your state’s students. That has shifted dramatically. A Brookings Institution analysis of two decades of federal data found that the share of out-of-state students at flagship universities rose by an average of 55%, with 48 of the 50 flagships enrolling a larger out-of-state share than they did in 2002.

At some schools the change is staggering. At the University of Alabama, in-state students made up about 77% of the freshman class in 2002 — and roughly 35% two decades later. The University of Arkansas went from about 8 in 10 in-state to fewer than 4 in 10.

Why? Out-of-state students pay significantly more, and as state funding tightened, that revenue became essential. It is not a villain story — it’s a budget story. But the effect on your family is real: the seats set aside for local students are a smaller slice of a bigger pie.

Reason #3: Admission Is Now Decided Major by Major

This is the one almost nobody sees coming, and it is the single most important thing in this post.

At many public universities, students are now admitted to a specific program, not simply to the university. That means the acceptance rate you looked up online — the university-wide number — may have very little to do with your student’s actual odds.

Look at what that gap looks like at one school. UCLA publishes admit rates by school and college, and the spread is dramatic:

And it goes deeper than the college level. Within engineering, reported figures put UCLA’s computer science admit rate around 3%, while chemical engineering sits closer to 17%. At UC Berkeley, where the university-wide rate has hovered around 11%, applicants whose first-choice major was mechanical engineering have been admitted at roughly 5%. At the University of Illinois, computer science has admitted around 7% while the “CS + X” programs admitted closer to 17% — at a university whose overall rate is far higher than either.

The published admit rate is the university’s average. Your student is not applying to the average.

Where to Actually Find These Numbers

Here’s the frustrating truth we run into constantly: there is no single national database that lists admit rates by major. That is precisely why so many families never see these numbers until it’s too late. But the information is out there, and it’s free. Here is exactly where to look, in order:

1. Start with the college’s own admissions or institutional research page. This is the only reliable source for major-level numbers, and it’s where our UCLA figures above came from. Search the school’s site for an “admitted class profile,” “freshman profile,” or “admissions statistics” page. Not every school publishes this level of detail — and as we mentioned, that silence is itself useful information.
2. Then pull the school’s Common Data Set. Google “[SCHOOL NAME] Common Data Set” and look for the most recent year. It’s usually a PDF tucked away on the institutional research page. Go to section C1 for applicants, admits, and the overall acceptance rate, and further into section C for the GPA and test-score profile of enrolled students. This is the same standardized data the guidebooks use, straight from the source and completely free.
3. Use the federal College Scorecard for the big picture. The U.S. Department of Education publishes official data on every American college — overall admit rate, middle-50% test ranges, average net price after aid, and enrollment size. It’s the most trustworthy place to compare schools side by side, and the net price figure is especially valuable for that “money test” we described above.

So What Counts as a True “Likely” School?

Here’s the definition we use with our families, and it is stricter than the one most people are working with. A genuine likely school passes all three of these tests:

• The profile test. Your student’s grades and rigor sit clearly above the school’s typical admitted range — not right at the middle.
• The major test. The specific program your student will list is not dramatically more selective than the university overall.
• The money test. The cost genuinely works for your family without a scholarship you are only hoping for.

If a school fails even one of those, it is a target, not a likely. And that is completely fine! You simply need to know which is which in July, rather than discovering it in March.

The Strategy Most Families Miss: Choose the Major Deliberately

Because admission is often program-specific, the major your student lists is a strategic decision, not a formality. A student genuinely drawn to technology who lists the single most oversubscribed program at a flagship may be turned away from a university that would gladly have admitted them into a closely related one.

We are not suggesting anyone game the system or claim an interest they don’t have. Readers can tell, and it never ends well. We’re suggesting something simpler and completely honest: if your student’s interests genuinely span several programs, find out which of those doors is widest at each school before deciding which one to knock on.

Your Late-July Game Plan: 4 Moves

1. Audit the list honestly. Go school by school and label each one likely, target, or reach — using the major-level admit rate wherever it’s published. Be tougher than feels comfortable!
2. Count your true likelies. If you don’t have at least two your student is genuinely excited about, that is this summer’s most important project. Add schools now, while there’s time to research them properly.
3. Run the money conversation. What can your family comfortably pay each year, without counting on aid you haven’t been offered? A likely school you can’t afford isn’t a likely school.
4. Check the major, not just the school. Look up program-level selectivity and internal transfer rules for every school on the list.

What This Looks Like, by Grade

Rising Seniors — Class of 2027

• Re-label every school on the list this week using major-level data. Expect a few schools to move categories!
• Add likely schools now if you’re short, and plan a visit or virtual session so your student can build real enthusiasm for them.
• Confirm which major your student will list at each school — and check the internal transfer rules.

Rising Juniors — Class of 2028

• Start visiting a range of schools, not just the famous ones. Excitement about a likely school almost always begins with a campus visit.
• Let your student explore what genuinely interests them academically, so next year’s major decision is grounded rather than rushed.

9th & 10th Graders — Class of 2029 & 2030

• Focus on the transcript and on real depth in one or two genuine interests. Both quietly widen every door later.
• Keep an open mind about schools outside your state — the best fit is very often somewhere the family hadn’t considered yet!

Remember, none of this means your student won’t land somewhere wonderful. It simply means the old rule — that the state school is automatic — needs to be retired and replaced with a list built on current information. The bottom line is this: the families who do that work in July are the ones celebrating in March. And a calm, well-thought-out game plan and strategy is what helps students thrive and earn acceptances to their dream colleges, year after year!

To Your Success,
Drs. Jeff and Brian Haig
Current Members, UCLA Scholarship Admissions Committee
Strategic College Consulting

P.S. — If you do only one thing after reading this, look up the admit rate for your student’s intended major at your state flagship. That single number changes more college lists than any other piece of research we assign!

Frequently Asked Questions

Is my in-state public university still a safety school?

For many students, no. Public universities are receiving record application volume, out-of-state enrollment has grown substantially over the past two decades, and admission is often decided major by major. Treat your state flagship as a target unless your student is clearly above the admitted profile for their specific intended program.

Why does the major matter so much at public universities?

Many public universities admit students directly into a program rather than into the university as a whole. Capacity-constrained majors such as computer science, engineering, business, and nursing can be far more selective than the school’s overall admit rate suggests. At UCLA, for example, published admit rates have ranged from roughly 1% for nursing to about 19% for music — at the same university, in the same cycle.

Where can I find a college’s acceptance rate by major?

There is no single national database of admit rates by major, so start with the college’s own admissions or institutional research page, which is where schools publish an admitted class profile when they break it out by program. Next, search “[school name] Common Data Set” and check section C1 for the overall acceptance rate and admitted student profile. For federal, standardized data across every college — including overall admit rate and average net price after aid — use the U.S. Department of Education’s College Scorecard. If a major-level number isn’t published anywhere, call the admissions office and ask directly.

What counts as a true “likely” school?

Three tests must all pass: your student’s profile is clearly above the school’s typical admitted range, the intended major is not dramatically more selective than the university overall, and the cost works for your family without depending on aid you haven’t been offered. If any one fails, it’s a target, not a likely.

How many schools should be on a college list?

A balanced list generally includes 2-3 likely schools, 3-5 targets, and 2-4 reaches, spread across public and private options and across a range of costs. Most importantly, every school on the list should be one your student would genuinely be happy to attend.

Are private colleges more expensive than public universities?

Not always. Private colleges often have larger merit and need-based aid budgets, so a private school’s net cost after aid can be comparable to, or occasionally lower than, in-state tuition. Always compare net cost after aid rather than sticker price.

Can my student switch into a competitive major after they enroll?

Sometimes, but not always. Several universities that admit directly into computing and engineering programs state plainly that students not admitted to the major as first-years are unlikely to be admitted later. Check each school’s internal transfer policy before deciding which major to list on the application.